{ "meta": { "generated": "2026-08-09", "generator": "scripts/generate_econ_centre.py" }, "nev": { "name": "Normalised Enterprise Value of an ORS-49-condition HR 49", "central": 300000, "low": 250000, "high": 360000, "confidence": "LOW: one verified sale (at a HIGHER standard than ORS-49), unsold asks everywhere else", "derivation": [ { "comp": "Hull 63 Bedouin", "obs": "EUR 370,000 notarised sale 2023 immediately after a EUR 330k+ refit that went well BEYOND ORS-49 (full cosmetics, upholstery, repaint, hydraulics, lithium). Ceiling comp.", "in_2026_eur": 381100, "weight": "primary ceiling — an ORS-grade boat lacks Bedouin's cosmetic scope; deduct roughly EUR 60-90k of non-ORS scope to imply EUR ~290-320k for ORS-grade" }, { "comp": "Hull 5 Stella Maris", "obs": "EUR 299,000 ask (2025-26) with a documented but aging 2018 refit and an original 5,000-hr engine — UNSOLD for over a year", "in_2026_eur": 300500, "weight": "upper bound of the ask curve for near-ORS condition; failure to clear says market value sits below EUR 300k" }, { "comp": "Live market staleness", "obs": "None of the five live boats (asks EUR 50k auction to EUR 249k) has sold at its ask during the 2024-26 observation window; the W&S boat cut GBP 160k -> 149,950", "in_2026_eur": "n/a", "weight": "structural: the entire ask curve trades above clearing prices" }, { "comp": "Hull 10 Freidig", "obs": "Three notarised sales 2007-2010 at EUR 305-335k in 2026 money (condition then unrecorded, market stronger)", "in_2026_eur": "305,000-335,000", "weight": "historical corroboration that a good HR 49 has cleared at EUR ~300k+ real — in a stronger market" }, { "comp": "Hull 17 Pegasus", "obs": "USD 439,000 ask 2020 post-2016-refit -> USD 199,000 ask 2025-26", "in_2026_eur": "456,000 -> 179,000", "weight": "refit ask-premium decays to zero within a decade; supports treating capex as non-recoverable" }, { "comp": "BUC International book (2026)", "obs": "Captured user deal file: OneDrive/4_Research/49_Hallberg Rassy: 1985 ketch $249.5-274k; 1990 sloop $248-272.5k; implied 1985 sloop $214-235k (I). US retail book; BUC runs 10-25% ABOVE observed US asking (Pegasus asks $199k vs implied $214k floor).", "in_2026_eur": "≈ €185,000–203,000 (implied 1985 sloop, mid)", "weight": "independent non-broker anchor — but US, retail, and book-curve based; treated as soft-ceiling corroboration of the ask curve, not a market read" }, { "comp": "Deal-file works-linked exit ladder", "obs": "user deal file: OneDrive/4_Research/49_Hallberg Rassy 12/17: exit bands GBP 142k/175k/197k for low/base/high works on the Carpe Diem boat, ask-anchored (built before this register's notarised sales existed)", "in_2026_eur": "≈ €166,000–230,000", "weight": "second independent model; converges with BUC condition rungs; implies partially-sorted boats clear BELOW this band's floor" } ], "notes": [ "The fleet has repriced DOWN in real terms: 2007-2010 verified sales at EUR 305-335k (2026 money) vs 2025-26 asks of EUR 135-250k for mid-condition boats — and even those asks are not clearing.", "NEV is deliberately the value of an ORS-49 boat, not a Bedouin-grade showpiece: capability without cosmetics. Presenting a boat at Bedouin grade costs a further EUR ~60-90k and, on the single verified datapoint, returns roughly that amount at sale — no arbitrage either way.", "NEV applies to the standard hull. Hull 1 (unique 16 m twin-cockpit) and the 5 Caribia-edition boats have no comp set; variant premium/discount unquantified.", "Refit capex does not transfer 1:1 into value. The market pays for CONDITION, evidenced; it pays nothing for invoices.", "TENSION RECORDED, not averaged: two independent ask-anchored models (BUC book, deal-file exit ladder) place partially-sorted exits at EUR 165-230k — below this band's floor. The band holds for FULL ORS-49 condition with documentation (Bedouin's EUR 381k real sale is the proof it can clear); treat the band's low half as where sorted-but-undocumented boats actually trade.", "Rig plan: BUC's +16.5% ketch book premium is a list-price artifact; the observed market pays no ketch premium (a 1986 owner paid to CONVERT ketch->sloop in 2008). BUC has NO 1985 sloop record at all — consistent with the yard's 'in the beginning she was only built as a ketch' and a ketch-dominant 1982-87 production era.", "ASSET FLOOR (imported, deal file 22): component-level liquidation of an HR 49 is NEGATIVE (orderly -EUR 3,899; separation costs ~EUR 23k eat the ~EUR 19k recoveries). Whole-beats-parts by ~EUR 32k; derived whole-boat floor EUR 28-43k. 100%+ of the asset's value is going-concern value." ] }, "bridges": [ { "boat_key": "named:Williams_Smithells_1987_Lefkas", "display": "W&S Lefkas boat (1987)", "confidence": "A", "entry_raw": { "amount": 149950, "currency": "GBP", "date": "2026-08-09", "label": "V", "note": "Live Williams & Smithells listing, GBP 149,950 incl VAT, tax paid, full Italian flag-closure papers 2020 — cleanest paperwork in the fleet. On market since ~2024 at GBP 160k -> 149,950; archived 2017 ask EUR 260k in Tuscany [probable same boat]." }, "entry_eur_2026": 175441.5, "friction_rows": [ { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000, "central": 5000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000, "central": 3000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 4000, "high": 9000, "central": 6500.0, "note": "" } ], "friction": { "low": 10000.0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 19000.0 }, "lines": [ { "item": "ENG", "state": "SPLIT", "low": 8000, "high": 65000, "evidence": "ORIGINAL 1987 TMD41A 150hp at 7,500 hrs. Runs, injector pump/injectors professionally cleaned + tappets adjusted 2024 (listing, V). For immediate ocean capability an original 39-year-old engine at 7,500 hrs is the boat's one big question: LOW = keep servicing; HIGH = repower.", "label": "V", "central": 36500.0, "basis": "split case 8k / 65k", "item_name": "Main engine" }, { "item": "RIG", "state": "OK", "evidence": "Standing rigging renewed 2022 (listing, V)", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Standing rigging & furling" }, { "item": "SAILS", "state": "OK", "evidence": "In-mast main + genoa new 2024 (listing, V)", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Sail wardrobe" }, { "item": "DECK", "state": "OK", "evidence": "Teak totally replaced 2008, glued not screwed; owner states good condition (listing, V). 18 years old — sound now, next owner-but-one's problem.", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Teak deck" }, { "item": "HULL", "state": "OK", "evidence": "Anti-osmosis treatment + Coppercoat within the documented post-2020 GBP ~75k programme (listing, V)", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Hull integrity / osmosis" }, { "item": "ELEC", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "4x140Ah domestic 2022, 500W solar 2024, 12/24/220V systems (V) — lead bank adequate, not ocean-generous; modest uplift budgeted", "label": "V", "low": 4000, "central": 6000.0, "high": 8000, "basis": "service 4-8k", "item_name": "Electrical system" }, { "item": "NAV", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "Autopilot with oversized spare drive unit (V); suite age unstated — service/partial-refresh budgeted", "label": "I", "low": 4000, "central": 6000.0, "high": 8000, "basis": "service 4-8k", "item_name": "Navigation & autopilot" }, { "item": "SYS", "state": "OK", "evidence": "New shaft seal 2022, new cutlass bearing 2022, new steering wheel; Max-prop (listing, V)", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering" }, { "item": "GEN", "state": "OK", "evidence": "Mase IS3501 3.5kVA at 220 hrs, oil+impeller service Jan 2025 (listing, V)", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Generator" }, { "item": "RUN", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "In-mast + genoa furling 2024 implies lines touched; full inventory unstated", "label": "I", "low": 2000, "central": 3000.0, "high": 4000, "basis": "service 2-4k", "item_name": "Running rigging & deck gear" }, { "item": "SAFE", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated in captured text", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 5500.0, "high": 14000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 14k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Ocean safety kit" } ], "bridge": { "low": 18000.0, "central": 65550.0, "high": 113850.0, "pre_contingency_central": 57000.0, "contingency_pct": 0.15, "contingency_central": 8550.0, "contingency_high": 14850.0 }, "day1": { "low": 203441.5, "central": 255491.5, "high": 308291.5 }, "gap": { "central": 44508.5, "best": 156558.5, "worst": -58291.5 }, "vat_flag": false, "nev_caveat": null, "narrative": "The best-evidenced live boat: nine of eleven systems verified, cleanest VAT/title file, and a reconstructed price history (EUR 260k ask 2017 -> GBP 150k today) showing the vendor has already absorbed the market's real-terms repricing. Everything reduces to a single decision: trust the original engine or budget EUR 45-65k to repower. Even with a full repower, Day-1 lands below NEV central — after two years on the market and a price cut, this is the only boat on the board with a clearly positive central-case gap. The market is paying the seller nothing for nine verified systems.", "capital_story": null, "n_unknown": 1, "n_lines": 11, "n_verified_lines": 8 }, { "boat_key": "named:ACI_Cres_1985", "display": "CARPE DIEM — Cres auction (1985)", "confidence": "B", "entry_raw": { "amount": 57785, "currency": "USD", "date": "2026-08-09", "label": "V", "note": "Live listing = EUR 50,000 auction start. DEAL-FILE CORRECTION: the 50k is a MECHANICAL ~0.2 x restatement of the EUR 250,000 ask (platform median 0.204, n=181) — not distress evidence in itself [V]. Hammer formation (deal-file model, 46 lots): boats median 32 bids; at the historical 26-40 bid band median hammer EUR 119-134k; P(hammer <= EUR 80k) only 3-34%. Every euro of hammer above 50k moves Day-1 and the gap 1:1 — the numbers below are the START-BID case, i.e. near the boat's best case, not its expected case." }, "entry_eur_2026": 49984.025, "friction_rows": [ { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000, "central": 5000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000, "central": 3000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 4000, "high": 9000, "central": 6500.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Auction buyer's premium", "low": 6250, "high": 6250, "central": 6250.0, "note": "12.5% on EUR 50k start bid; scales with hammer" } ], "friction": { "low": 16250.0, "central": 20750.0, "high": 25250.0 }, "lines": [ { "item": "ENG", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "TMD40B 117hp at 7,030 hrs — highest recorded in fleet (auction spec + De Valk 813048, V). Charter-grade usage.", "label": "V", "low": 45000, "central": 55000.0, "high": 65000, "basis": "full remediation 45-65k", "item_name": "Main engine" }, { "item": "HULL", "state": "OK", "evidence": "Full peel, 6-month heated dry-out, West System epoxy 2017 (auction spec, V) — best-documented osmosis job in the fleet", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Hull integrity / osmosis" }, { "item": "DECK", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "'Full teak deck' listed, presume ORIGINAL 1985 (deal file); deck CORE is closed-cell foam not balsa (V) — the benign failure mode", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 40000.0, "high": 100000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 100k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Teak deck" }, { "item": "RIG", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "No rigging dates anywhere; possible ketch->sloop CONVERSION (BUC structure finding) — if converted, the rig is younger than 1985 but of unknown date; stays unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 17500.0, "high": 42000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 42k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Standing rigging & furling" }, { "item": "SAILS", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "North main + genoa BOTH ~14 years old, furling (deal-file photo/brochure forensics, V) — past the ~10-year standard", "label": "V", "low": 22000, "central": 30000.0, "high": 38000, "basis": "full remediation 22-38k", "item_name": "Sail wardrobe" }, { "item": "ELEC", "state": "SPLIT", "evidence": "AMERICAN-SPEC 120V AC panel (V) — European use likely needs partial 230V conversion on top of bank/charging unknowns; AC + watermaker + bowthruster present as embedded extras", "label": "V", "low": 8000, "high": 32000, "central": 20000.0, "basis": "split case 8k / 32k", "item_name": "Electrical system" }, { "item": "NAV", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 36000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 36k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Navigation & autopilot" }, { "item": "SYS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated; 7,030-hr systems wear likely mirrors the engine", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 10500.0, "high": 28000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 28k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering" }, { "item": "GEN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Westerbeke generator fitted (US-spec, V); condition unstated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 9000.0, "high": 24000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 24k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Generator" }, { "item": "RUN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 6000.0, "high": 16000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 16k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Running rigging & deck gear" }, { "item": "SAFE", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "6-person liferaft 2024 noted in related Sofer-style spec? No — treat as partial: raft recency unclear, kit likely incomplete", "label": "I", "low": 2000, "central": 3000.0, "high": 4000, "basis": "service 2-4k", "item_name": "Ocean safety kit" } ], "bridge": { "low": 77000.0, "central": 256875.0, "high": 481250.0, "pre_contingency_central": 205500.0, "contingency_pct": 0.25, "contingency_central": 51375.0, "contingency_high": 96250.0 }, "day1": { "low": 143234.025, "central": 327609.025, "high": 556484.025 }, "gap": { "central": -27609.025000000023, "best": 216765.975, "worst": -306484.025 }, "vat_flag": false, "nev_caveat": null, "narrative": "Now identified: CARPE DIEM, an American-specification boat (120V, Westerbeke, Village Marine; US official number hypothesised) lying under auction at Cres. The deal file's forensics harden the bridge: sails are verifiably due, the 120V system adds European conversion cost, the 2017 hull job still retires the worst tail, and seven volumes of ship's records sit aboard — the provenance asset of the fleet if captured. The economics remain an option, but the strike is the HAMMER, not the start bid: at the deal file's modelled median hammer (EUR 119-134k at historical bid intensity) the central gap goes decisively negative. Below EUR ~80k it stays a surveyor's trade with the largest right tail on the board — and the component-level floor is NEGATIVE (whole beats parts by ~EUR 32k), so a structural miss costs more than everything. The deal file's independent embedded-value scenarios (+GBP 58k / +11k / -146k) bracket this register's bridge almost exactly — two models, one conclusion.", "capital_story": null, "n_unknown": 6, "n_lines": 11, "n_verified_lines": 4 }, { "boat_key": "hull:1", "display": "Hull 1 AMFITRITE (1983, 16 m variant)", "confidence": "C", "entry_raw": { "amount": 1950000, "currency": "SEK", "date": "2025-11-12", "label": "V", "note": "Berthon Scandinavia ask SEK 1,950,000 (~EUR 175k). Unique first hull: extended 52'6\" twin-cockpit transom, no teak deck, Yanmar 120hp repower (year unstated). NEV comparability is weak — no comp set exists for this variant." }, "entry_eur_2026": 175397.62499999997, "friction_rows": [ { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000, "central": 5000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000, "central": 3000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 4000, "high": 9000, "central": 6500.0, "note": "" } ], "friction": { "low": 10000.0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 19000.0 }, "lines": [ { "item": "ENG", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "Yanmar 4LH-THE 120hp repower, year/hours unstated (Berthon PDF, V for existence) — service budgeted, age unknown", "label": "I", "low": 8000, "central": 11500.0, "high": 15000, "basis": "service 8-15k", "item_name": "Main engine" }, { "item": "RIG", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Slab-reef mast (not stoway); no dates", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 17500.0, "high": 42000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 42k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Standing rigging & furling" }, { "item": "SAILS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 15000.0, "high": 38000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 38k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Sail wardrobe" }, { "item": "DECK", "state": "OK", "evidence": "NO teak deck (V) — an entire failure mode absent; the only fleet boat where DECK is structurally zero", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Teak deck" }, { "item": "HULL", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "No osmosis record", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 16250.0, "high": 40000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 40k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Hull integrity / osmosis" }, { "item": "ELEC", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Genset, washer, thrusters fitted; ages unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 12500.0, "high": 32000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 32k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Electrical system" }, { "item": "NAV", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 36000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 36k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Navigation & autopilot" }, { "item": "SYS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 10500.0, "high": 28000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 28k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering" }, { "item": "GEN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Present, age unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 9000.0, "high": 24000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 24k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Generator" }, { "item": "RUN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 6000.0, "high": 16000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 16k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Running rigging & deck gear" }, { "item": "SAFE", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 5500.0, "high": 14000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 14k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Ocean safety kit" } ], "bridge": { "low": 8000.0, "central": 147812.5, "high": 356250.0, "pre_contingency_central": 118250.0, "contingency_pct": 0.25, "contingency_central": 29562.5, "contingency_high": 71250.0 }, "day1": { "low": 193397.62499999997, "central": 337710.125, "high": 550647.625 }, "gap": { "central": -37710.125, "best": 166602.37500000003, "worst": -300647.625 }, "vat_flag": false, "nev_caveat": "Unique variant: standard-hull NEV applies only loosely; the extended layout may attract a premium buyer or a discount for non-originality. Treated at standard NEV with the caveat displayed.", "narrative": "Historically the most interesting hull (No. 1, one-off 16 m layout) and analytically the least comparable. The missing teak deck deletes the single biggest tail cost, which quietly makes her bridge distribution better than the ask suggests — but every other system is undocumented and the exit market for a modified first-hull is a guess. An asset for a collector-operator, not a portfolio allocator.", "capital_story": null, "n_unknown": 9, "n_lines": 11, "n_verified_lines": 1 }, { "boat_key": "hull:17", "display": "Hull 17 PEGASUS (1984)", "confidence": "B", "entry_raw": { "amount": 199000, "currency": "USD", "date": "2025", "label": "V", "note": "David Walters/Denison ask USD 199,000 (down from USD 439,000 in 2020 — the ask has given back the entire 2016-refit premium in nine years). Maine Maritime Academy institutional seller; lease-to-buy offered." }, "entry_eur_2026": 179995.49999999997, "friction_rows": [ { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000, "central": 5000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000, "central": 3000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 12000, "high": 25000, "central": 18500.0, "note": "US East Coast -> Europe: transatlantic delivery or ship-on-deck; materially higher than intra-EU" } ], "friction": { "low": 18000.0, "central": 26500.0, "high": 35000.0 }, "lines": [ { "item": "ENG", "state": "OK", "evidence": "Yanmar 4JH110 repower 2016, ~1,470 hrs at 2026 deal-file capture (the register's earlier 418 hrs was the 2020 listing) — still the youngest engine observed", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Main engine" }, { "item": "RIG", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "2016 'full refit' scope not itemised for rigging; 10 years old if done then — service/inspection budgeted", "label": "I", "low": 6000, "central": 8000.0, "high": 10000, "basis": "service 6-10k", "item_name": "Standing rigging & furling" }, { "item": "SAILS", "state": "SPLIT", "evidence": "Doyle sails 2016 (deal-file capture, V) — exactly at the ~10-year standard boundary: LOW service, HIGH renewal", "label": "V", "low": 4000, "high": 38000, "central": 21000.0, "basis": "split case 4k / 38k", "item_name": "Sail wardrobe" }, { "item": "DECK", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not itemised", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 40000.0, "high": 100000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 100k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Teak deck" }, { "item": "HULL", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "No osmosis record; US fresh/salt history unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 16250.0, "high": 40000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 40k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Hull integrity / osmosis" }, { "item": "ELEC", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "2016 refit likely touched it; academy use implies maintenance discipline", "label": "I", "low": 4000, "central": 6000.0, "high": 8000, "basis": "service 4-8k", "item_name": "Electrical system" }, { "item": "NAV", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "2016-era suite now 10 years old — refresh budgeted", "label": "I", "low": 4000, "central": 6000.0, "high": 8000, "basis": "service 4-8k", "item_name": "Navigation & autopilot" }, { "item": "SYS", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "Training use = high supervision, but also usage; Vari Prop new 2023, Starlink fitted (deal-file capture); Vari Prop new 2023, Starlink fitted (deal-file capture)", "label": "I", "low": 3000, "central": 4500.0, "high": 6000, "basis": "service 3-6k", "item_name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering" }, { "item": "GEN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 9000.0, "high": 24000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 24k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Generator" }, { "item": "RUN", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "Training use wears lines/winches", "label": "I", "low": 2000, "central": 3000.0, "high": 4000, "basis": "service 2-4k", "item_name": "Running rigging & deck gear" }, { "item": "SAFE", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "Academy boats usually certificated; renewal cycle budgeted", "label": "I", "low": 2000, "central": 3000.0, "high": 4000, "basis": "service 2-4k", "item_name": "Ocean safety kit" } ], "bridge": { "low": 25000.0, "central": 140100.0, "high": 290400.0, "pre_contingency_central": 116750.0, "contingency_pct": 0.2, "contingency_central": 23350.0, "contingency_high": 48400.0 }, "day1": { "low": 222995.49999999997, "central": 346595.5, "high": 505395.5 }, "gap": { "central": -46595.5, "best": 137004.50000000003, "worst": -255395.5 }, "vat_flag": false, "nev_caveat": null, "narrative": "The embedded-value candidate. A 418-hour 2016 Yanmar removes the fleet's biggest single cost, the institutional owner removes seller-storytelling risk, and the ask has already deflated 55% from 2020. The catch is geography: EUR 12-25k transatlantic friction and a US-spec boat for a European buyer. For a US-based buyer (strip the EUR 12-25k transatlantic friction) central Day-1 sits essentially at NEV — the fairest-priced boat observed. For a European buyer the Atlantic eats the entire margin and then some: geography, not condition, decides this one.", "capital_story": null, "n_unknown": 3, "n_lines": 11, "n_verified_lines": 2 }, { "boat_key": "named:Sofer_Yachts_1986_Preveza", "display": "Sofer Preveza boat (1986)", "confidence": "B", "entry_raw": { "amount": 228829, "currency": "USD", "date": "2026-08-09", "label": "V", "note": "Live YachtWorld ask (= ~EUR 198k; Sofer/Denison list EUR 199,000 excl tax). VAT FLAG: inherited capture states 'EU VAT not paid' — EU-use import exposure ~20% is flagged, not added." }, "entry_eur_2026": 197937.085, "friction_rows": [ { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000, "central": 5000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000, "central": 3000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 4000, "high": 9000, "central": 6500.0, "note": "" } ], "friction": { "low": 10000.0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 19000.0 }, "lines": [ { "item": "ENG", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "VP 140hp NEW 2008, ~3,200 hrs as of July 2025 (soferyachts.com, V) — mid-life repower, service only", "label": "V", "low": 8000, "central": 11500.0, "high": 15000, "basis": "service 8-15k", "item_name": "Main engine" }, { "item": "RIG", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "Rig & mast REPLACED 2008 to hydraulic in-mast, shrouds replaced then (V) — now 18 years old, past the ~12-year standard", "label": "V", "low": 28000, "central": 35000.0, "high": 42000, "basis": "full remediation 28-42k", "item_name": "Standing rigging & furling" }, { "item": "SAILS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Sail age unstated; 2008 in-mast conversion suggests 2008-era wardrobe unless renewed", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 15000.0, "high": 38000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 38k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Sail wardrobe" }, { "item": "HULL", "state": "OK", "evidence": "Full osmosis treatment 2017, 6-month heated dry-out, West System epoxy (V)", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Hull integrity / osmosis" }, { "item": "DECK", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "Teak with Sikaflex rubber replaced 2017 (V) — maintained original/older deck, re-caulked; localised work budgeted", "label": "V", "low": 8000, "central": 11500.0, "high": 15000, "basis": "service 8-15k", "item_name": "Teak deck" }, { "item": "ELEC", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated in captured text", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 12500.0, "high": 32000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 32k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Electrical system" }, { "item": "NAV", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 36000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 36k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Navigation & autopilot" }, { "item": "SYS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated; 900L fuel per spec (larger than standard 600L)", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 10500.0, "high": 28000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 28k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering" }, { "item": "GEN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 9000.0, "high": 24000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 24k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Generator" }, { "item": "RUN", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "Hydraulic furling systems from 2008 — service due on age", "label": "I", "low": 2000, "central": 3000.0, "high": 4000, "basis": "service 2-4k", "item_name": "Running rigging & deck gear" }, { "item": "SAFE", "state": "OK", "evidence": "6-person liferaft 2024 (V)", "label": "V", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Ocean safety kit" } ], "bridge": { "low": 46000.0, "central": 147000.0, "high": 280800.0, "pre_contingency_central": 122500.0, "contingency_pct": 0.2, "contingency_central": 24500.0, "contingency_high": 46800.0 }, "day1": { "low": 253937.085, "central": 359437.08499999996, "high": 497737.08499999996 }, "gap": { "central": -59437.08499999996, "best": 106062.91500000001, "worst": -247737.08499999996 }, "vat_flag": true, "nev_caveat": null, "narrative": "A loved, 12-years-one-family boat (3rd ownership) with the two structural fears (osmosis, engine) retired — but priced as if the 2008 systems were new. Rig is 18 years old, the wardrobe likely too, electrics undocumented, and the VAT flag can add ~20% for an EU user. At ~EUR 198k entry the central bridge pushes Day-1 roughly EUR 60k through NEV central before the VAT flag is even priced. The ask embeds the seller's affection and the 2008 refit's memory, not its 2026 remainder.", "capital_story": null, "n_unknown": 5, "n_lines": 11, "n_verified_lines": 5 }, { "boat_key": "named:BEAR", "display": "BEAR (1987) — stale/delisted", "confidence": "C", "entry_raw": { "amount": 149950, "currency": "GBP", "date": "2024", "label": "I", "note": "Last known ask GBP 149,950; listing DELISTED by 2026-08-09 and never archived — price is stale and the boat may have sold or been withdrawn. On the hard at Port Napoleon." }, "entry_eur_2026": 177195.915, "friction_rows": [ { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000, "central": 5000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000, "central": 3000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 4000, "high": 9000, "central": 6500.0, "note": "" } ], "friction": { "low": 10000.0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 19000.0 }, "lines": [ { "item": "ENG", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "TAMD41 200hp at 2,840 hrs (captured listing, I). If the Glyfada-2013-repower suspicion is right, this is a ~13-year-old engine at moderate hours — service only", "label": "I", "low": 8000, "central": 11500.0, "high": 15000, "basis": "service 8-15k", "item_name": "Main engine" }, { "item": "RECOM", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "Standing on the hard (captured listing)", "label": "I", "low": 5000, "central": 8500.0, "high": 12000, "basis": "full remediation 5-12k", "item_name": "Recommissioning after lay-up" }, { "item": "RIG", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "The 'GBP 75k invested since 2020' text was copy-pasted from another boat and is excluded (conflict log); nothing verified remains", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 17500.0, "high": 42000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 42k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Standing rigging & furling" }, { "item": "SAILS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "As above — all prior claims quarantined", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 15000.0, "high": 38000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 38k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Sail wardrobe" }, { "item": "DECK", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 40000.0, "high": 100000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 100k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Teak deck" }, { "item": "HULL", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 16250.0, "high": 40000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 40k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Hull integrity / osmosis" }, { "item": "ELEC", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 12500.0, "high": 32000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 32k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Electrical system" }, { "item": "NAV", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 36000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 36k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Navigation & autopilot" }, { "item": "SYS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 10500.0, "high": 28000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 28k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering" }, { "item": "GEN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 9000.0, "high": 24000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 24k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Generator" }, { "item": "RUN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 6000.0, "high": 16000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 16k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Running rigging & deck gear" }, { "item": "SAFE", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 5500.0, "high": 14000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 14k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Ocean safety kit" } ], "bridge": { "low": 13000.0, "central": 208437.5, "high": 496250.0, "pre_contingency_central": 166750.0, "contingency_pct": 0.25, "contingency_central": 41687.5, "contingency_high": 99250.0 }, "day1": { "low": 200195.915, "central": 400133.41500000004, "high": 692445.915 }, "gap": { "central": -100133.41500000004, "best": 159804.085, "worst": -442445.91500000004 }, "vat_flag": false, "nev_caveat": null, "narrative": "A data-integrity object lesson: after stripping a copy-pasted history (see conflict ledger), the record holds one decent engine datapoint and a stale price on a delisted boat. The 200hp repowered engine at 2,840 hrs would be a genuine asset if the boat resurfaces; until then this bridge exists mainly to show what the register does NOT know.", "capital_story": null, "n_unknown": 10, "n_lines": 12, "n_verified_lines": 0 }, { "boat_key": "named:1994_UK", "display": "1994 UK boat — youngest known hull", "confidence": "D", "entry_raw": { "amount": 149000, "currency": "GBP", "date": "unknown (agent capture)", "label": "I", "note": "Apollo Duck aggregator ask GBP 149,000 tax paid; capture undated, listing status unverified. Price treated as indicative only." }, "entry_eur_2026": 174330.0, "friction_rows": [ { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000, "central": 5000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000, "central": 3000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 4000, "high": 9000, "central": 6500.0, "note": "" } ], "friction": { "low": 10000.0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 19000.0 }, "lines": [ { "item": "ENG", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Nothing captured. A 1994 boat could plausibly carry its original engine at moderate hours", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 27500.0, "high": 65000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 65k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Main engine" }, { "item": "RIG", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 17500.0, "high": 42000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 42k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Standing rigging & furling" }, { "item": "SAILS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 15000.0, "high": 38000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 38k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Sail wardrobe" }, { "item": "DECK", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 40000.0, "high": 100000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 100k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Teak deck" }, { "item": "HULL", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "1994 laminate = materially lower osmosis prior than 1982-85 hulls, but no readings", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 16250.0, "high": 40000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 40k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Hull integrity / osmosis" }, { "item": "ELEC", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 12500.0, "high": 32000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 32k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Electrical system" }, { "item": "NAV", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 36000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 36k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Navigation & autopilot" }, { "item": "SYS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 10500.0, "high": 28000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 28k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering" }, { "item": "GEN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 9000.0, "high": 24000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 24k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Generator" }, { "item": "RUN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 6000.0, "high": 16000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 16k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Running rigging & deck gear" }, { "item": "SAFE", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Unknown", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 5500.0, "high": 14000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 14k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Ocean safety kit" } ], "bridge": { "low": 0.0, "central": 217812.5, "high": 543750.0, "pre_contingency_central": 174250.0, "contingency_pct": 0.25, "contingency_central": 43562.5, "contingency_high": 108750.0 }, "day1": { "low": 184330.0, "central": 406642.5, "high": 737080.0 }, "gap": { "central": -106642.5, "best": 175670.0, "worst": -487080.0 }, "vat_flag": false, "nev_caveat": null, "narrative": "Included to show the honest shape of a price-only record: an 11-item bridge of pure unknowns spans roughly EUR 0-420k prudent-high. The 1994 build year is the one real signal — youngest known hull, lowest osmosis prior, plausibly original-but-younger everything. A survey would move this boat more than any other on the board.", "capital_story": null, "n_unknown": 11, "n_lines": 11, "n_verified_lines": 0 }, { "boat_key": "hull:5", "display": "Hull 5 STELLA MARIS (1983/84)", "confidence": "A", "entry_raw": { "amount": 299000, "currency": "EUR", "date": "2025", "label": "V", "note": "Regina Sailing / De Valk 809256 ask EUR 299,000 (long-standing; earlier wayback shows her lying Malaysia at 5,000 hrs). Not sold at this level." }, "entry_eur_2026": 300494.99999999994, "friction_rows": [ { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000, "central": 5000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000, "central": 3000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 4000, "high": 9000, "central": 6500.0, "note": "" } ], "friction": { "low": 10000.0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 19000.0 }, "lines": [ { "item": "ENG", "state": "SPLIT", "low": 8000, "high": 65000, "evidence": "ORIGINAL TMD40A 124hp, ~5,000 hrs (owner site + De Valk, V). Documented care, but a 42-year-old original at 5,000 hrs is the same repower question as the Lefkas boat", "label": "V", "central": 36500.0, "basis": "split case 8k / 65k", "item_name": "Main engine" }, { "item": "RIG", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "2018 Adams Boat Care refit (~EUR 190k, V) is stated to be comprehensive; rigging assumed then = 8 years old", "label": "I", "low": 6000, "central": 8000.0, "high": 10000, "basis": "service 6-10k", "item_name": "Standing rigging & furling" }, { "item": "SAILS", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "2018 refit era; 45,000nm boat — service/partial renewal", "label": "I", "low": 4000, "central": 6000.0, "high": 8000, "basis": "service 4-8k", "item_name": "Sail wardrobe" }, { "item": "DECK", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not itemised in refit summary", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 40000.0, "high": 100000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 100k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Teak deck" }, { "item": "HULL", "state": "OK", "evidence": "2018 professional refit at Adams (Sweden) with documented spend; no osmosis flags in any capture", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Hull integrity / osmosis" }, { "item": "ELEC", "state": "OK", "evidence": "2018 refit scope; owner-site documentation", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Electrical system" }, { "item": "NAV", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "2018 suite now 8 years old", "label": "I", "low": 4000, "central": 6000.0, "high": 8000, "basis": "service 4-8k", "item_name": "Navigation & autopilot" }, { "item": "SYS", "state": "OK", "evidence": "2018 refit + continuous world-cruise maintenance culture (owner site)", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 0, "high": 0, "basis": "compliant — no cost", "item_name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering" }, { "item": "GEN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 9000.0, "high": 24000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 24k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Generator" }, { "item": "RUN", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "45,000 nm of use since fit-out", "label": "I", "low": 2000, "central": 3000.0, "high": 4000, "basis": "service 2-4k", "item_name": "Running rigging & deck gear" }, { "item": "SAFE", "state": "SERVICE", "evidence": "World-cruise boat, likely equipped; certificates need cycling", "label": "I", "low": 2000, "central": 3000.0, "high": 4000, "basis": "service 2-4k", "item_name": "Ocean safety kit" } ], "bridge": { "low": 26000.0, "central": 128225.0, "high": 256450.0, "pre_contingency_central": 111500.0, "contingency_pct": 0.15, "contingency_central": 16725.0, "contingency_high": 33450.0 }, "day1": { "low": 336494.99999999994, "central": 443219.99999999994, "high": 575945.0 }, "gap": { "central": -143219.99999999994, "best": 23505.00000000006, "worst": -325945.0 }, "vat_flag": false, "nev_caveat": null, "narrative": "The fleet's best-documented boat and its cautionary tale on capex recovery: EUR 230k (2026 money) invested in 2018, asking EUR 300k seven years later, unsold — the ask effectively prices the refit at ~EUR 70-130k of recovered value over a EUR 170-230k base boat. For a buyer, Day-1 central lands EUR ~140k above NEV: the ask prices the 2018 refit close to fully while the market (which has not met it in over a year) does not. Best documentation in the fleet, worst central-case economics after Altor and Queen Anne. The 5,000-hr original engine is the question the ask ignores.", "capital_story": [ { "year": 2015, "event": "Sold NL -> CH owner (Haerri)", "amount_2026_eur": null, "note": "price unobserved" }, { "year": 2018, "event": "Adams Boat Care refit", "nominal": "EUR ~190,000", "amount_2026_eur": 229900, "label": "V (owner-documented)" }, { "year": 2025, "event": "Asking price", "nominal": "EUR 299,000", "amount_2026_eur": 300500, "label": "V" } ], "n_unknown": 2, "n_lines": 11, "n_verified_lines": 1 }, { "boat_key": "named:Altor", "display": "Altor (1990)", "confidence": "C", "entry_raw": { "amount": 249000, "currency": "EUR", "date": "2026-08-09", "label": "V", "note": "De Valk 809602 live ask EUR 249,000 (reduced from 275,000); = USD 287,769 on YachtWorld. Highest live ask in the fleet." }, "entry_eur_2026": 249000.0, "friction_rows": [ { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000, "central": 5000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000, "central": 3000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 4000, "high": 9000, "central": 6500.0, "note": "" } ], "friction": { "low": 10000.0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 19000.0 }, "lines": [ { "item": "ENG", "state": "SPLIT", "low": 8000, "high": 65000, "evidence": "TMD41A 143hp at 5,210 hrs (De Valk spec, V). 1990 original at high-mid hours: LOW = service and go; HIGH = repower for true ocean standard", "label": "V", "central": 36500.0, "basis": "split case 8k / 65k", "item_name": "Main engine" }, { "item": "RIG", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "No dates captured", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 17500.0, "high": 42000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 42k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Standing rigging & furling" }, { "item": "SAILS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "No dates captured", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 15000.0, "high": 38000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 38k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Sail wardrobe" }, { "item": "DECK", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not captured", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 40000.0, "high": 100000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 100k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Teak deck" }, { "item": "HULL", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "No osmosis history captured", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 16250.0, "high": 40000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 40k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Hull integrity / osmosis" }, { "item": "ELEC", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not captured", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 12500.0, "high": 32000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 32k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Electrical system" }, { "item": "NAV", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not captured", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 36000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 36k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Navigation & autopilot" }, { "item": "SYS", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not captured", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 10500.0, "high": 28000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 28k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering" }, { "item": "GEN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not captured", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 9000.0, "high": 24000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 24k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Generator" }, { "item": "RUN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not captured", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 6000.0, "high": 16000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 16k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Running rigging & deck gear" }, { "item": "SAFE", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not captured", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 5500.0, "high": 14000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 14k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Ocean safety kit" } ], "bridge": { "low": 8000.0, "central": 229062.5, "high": 543750.0, "pre_contingency_central": 183250.0, "contingency_pct": 0.25, "contingency_central": 45812.5, "contingency_high": 108750.0 }, "day1": { "low": 267000.0, "central": 492562.5, "high": 811750.0 }, "gap": { "central": -192562.5, "best": 93000.0, "worst": -561750.0 }, "vat_flag": false, "nev_caveat": null, "narrative": "The most expensive live boat and the least evidenced: one verified fact (5,210-hr original engine) and ten unknowns. A younger hull (1990) justifies some premium, but at EUR 249k the ask already sits at ~67% of NEV before a single bridge item — and the honest bridge range is EUR 30-300k wide. Worst risk-adjusted entry on the board until a survey collapses the unknowns.", "capital_story": null, "n_unknown": 10, "n_lines": 11, "n_verified_lines": 1 }, { "boat_key": "named:Queen_Anne", "display": "Queen Anne (1985)", "confidence": "B", "entry_raw": { "amount": 139500, "currency": "EUR", "date": "2026-08-09", "label": "V", "note": "Denison capture: off market at EUR 139,500 after failing to sell from USD 146,475 (Dec 2024). Ashore ~3 years; broker text itself concedes 'inadequate maintenance... owner's health issues'. A motivated-seller situation without a live ask." }, "entry_eur_2026": 139500.0, "friction_rows": [ { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000, "central": 5000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000, "central": 3000.0, "note": "" }, { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 4000, "high": 9000, "central": 6500.0, "note": "" } ], "friction": { "low": 10000.0, "central": 14500.0, "high": 19000.0 }, "lines": [ { "item": "ENG", "state": "SPLIT", "low": 12000, "high": 65000, "evidence": "No engine data captured; 1985 boat, 3 years idle ashore — LOW assumes it wakes up after heavy service, HIGH a repower", "label": "I", "central": 38500.0, "basis": "split case 12k / 65k", "item_name": "Main engine" }, { "item": "RIG", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "No renewal history anywhere in three captures; 1985 ketch rig with no stated work = assume due", "label": "I", "low": 28000, "central": 35000.0, "high": 42000, "basis": "full remediation 28-42k", "item_name": "Standing rigging & furling" }, { "item": "SAILS", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "No sail data; 'inadequate maintenance' + 3 years ashore", "label": "I", "low": 22000, "central": 30000.0, "high": 38000, "basis": "full remediation 22-38k", "item_name": "Sail wardrobe" }, { "item": "DECK", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 40000.0, "high": 100000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 100k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Teak deck" }, { "item": "HULL", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "No osmosis history; 3 years dry is actually favourable for moisture, but no readings", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 16250.0, "high": 40000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 40k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Hull integrity / osmosis" }, { "item": "ELEC", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "3 years unpowered ashore kills lead banks; assume full renewal", "label": "I", "low": 18000, "central": 25000.0, "high": 32000, "basis": "full remediation 18-32k", "item_name": "Electrical system" }, { "item": "NAV", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "No suite described; era + neglect = assume renewal", "label": "I", "low": 22000, "central": 29000.0, "high": 36000, "basis": "full remediation 22-36k", "item_name": "Navigation & autopilot" }, { "item": "SYS", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "Hoses/seacocks/impellers after 3 dry years = renew", "label": "I", "low": 14000, "central": 21000.0, "high": 28000, "basis": "full remediation 14-28k", "item_name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering" }, { "item": "GEN", "state": "UNKNOWN", "evidence": "Not stated", "label": "I", "low": 0, "central": 9000.0, "high": 24000, "basis": "unknown: 0 if fine, up to 24k if due; central weighted 50%", "item_name": "Generator" }, { "item": "RUN", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "UV + idleness; assume renewal", "label": "I", "low": 8000, "central": 12000.0, "high": 16000, "basis": "full remediation 8-16k", "item_name": "Running rigging & deck gear" }, { "item": "SAFE", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "Certificates will be out of date after 3 years", "label": "I", "low": 8000, "central": 11000.0, "high": 14000, "basis": "full remediation 8-14k", "item_name": "Ocean safety kit" }, { "item": "RECOM", "state": "DUE", "evidence": "3 years ashore: full recommissioning is not optional", "label": "V", "low": 5000, "central": 8500.0, "high": 12000, "basis": "full remediation 5-12k", "item_name": "Recommissioning after lay-up" } ], "bridge": { "low": 137000.0, "central": 344062.5, "high": 558750.0, "pre_contingency_central": 275250.0, "contingency_pct": 0.25, "contingency_central": 68812.5, "contingency_high": 111750.0 }, "day1": { "low": 286500.0, "central": 498062.5, "high": 717250.0 }, "gap": { "central": -198062.5, "best": 73500.0, "worst": -467250.0 }, "vat_flag": false, "nev_caveat": null, "narrative": "The classic broker-storytelling gap: 'well-priced ketch' vs the arithmetic of three years' neglect. The honest central bridge (~EUR 340k with recommissioning and contingency) on a EUR 140k boat lands Day-1 near EUR 500k against a EUR 300k NEV — the widest central-case value destruction on the board. Only a deep further price cut or a surveyor's miracle changes this picture. The US-market origin thread (unverified) adds title-history diligence.", "capital_story": null, "n_unknown": 3, "n_lines": 12, "n_verified_lines": 1 } ], "price_observations": [ { "year": 2025, "eur2026": 175397.62499999997, "boat": "hull 1", "type": "ask", "orig": "1,950,000 SEK (2025)" }, { "year": 2026, "eur2026": 220000.0, "boat": "ELEA_III", "type": "ask", "orig": "220,000 EUR (2026)" }, { "year": 2017, "eur2026": 319800.0, "boat": "Williams_Smithells_1987_Lefkas", "type": "ask", "orig": "260,000 EUR (2017)" }, { "year": 2017, "eur2026": 221400.0, "boat": "boatscom-6263405", "type": "ask", "orig": "180,000 EUR (2017)" }, { "year": 2024, "eur2026": 136104.57, "boat": "Queen_Anne", "type": "ask", "orig": "146,475 USD (2024)" }, { "year": 2026, "eur2026": 139500.0, "boat": "Queen_Anne", "type": "ask", "orig": "139,500 EUR (2026)" }, { "year": 2025, "eur2026": 199994.99999999997, "boat": "Sofer_Yachts_1986_Preveza", "type": "ask", "orig": "199,000 EUR (2025)" }, { "year": 2023, "eur2026": 283250.0, "boat": "hull 63", "type": "ask", "orig": "275,000 EUR (2023)" }, { "year": 2025, "eur2026": 250244.99999999997, "boat": "Altor", "type": "ask", "orig": "249,000 EUR (2025)" }, { "year": 2026, "eur2026": 250000.0, "boat": "ACI_Cres_1985", "type": "auction", "orig": "250,000 EUR (2026)" }, { "year": 2025, "eur2026": 176318.7075, "boat": "Williams_Smithells_1987_Lefkas", "type": "ask", "orig": "149,950 GBP (2025)" }, { "year": 2020, "eur2026": 467280.0, "boat": "hull 51", "type": "ask", "orig": "450,000 USD (2020)" }, { "year": 2025, "eur2026": 212557.49999999997, "boat": "hull 17", "type": "ask", "orig": "235,000 USD (2025)" }, { "year": 2026, "eur2026": 197937.085, "boat": "Sofer_Yachts_1986_Preveza", "type": "ask", "orig": "228,829 USD (2026)" }, { "year": 2026, "eur2026": 49984.025, "boat": "ACI_Cres_1985", "type": "auction", "orig": "57,785 USD (2026)" }, { "year": 2026, "eur2026": 49984.025, "boat": "ACI_Cres_1985", "type": "auction", "orig": "57,785 USD (2026)" }, { "year": 2022, "eur2026": 256150.00000000003, "boat": "BEAR", "type": "ask", "orig": "235,000 EUR (2022)" }, { "year": 2026, "eur2026": 174993.825, "boat": "Williams_Smithells_1987_Lefkas", "type": "ask", "orig": "202,305 USD (2026)" }, { "year": 2026, "eur2026": 248920.185, "boat": "Altor", "type": "ask", "orig": "287,769 USD (2026)" }, { "year": 1996, "eur2026": 193577.4, "boat": "Freidig", "type": "sale", "orig": "922,500 NOK (1996)" }, { "year": 2007, "eur2026": 332812.5, "boat": "Freidig", "type": "sale", "orig": "1,875,000 NOK (2007)" }, { "year": 2008, "eur2026": 308078.1, "boat": "Freidig", "type": "sale", "orig": "1,845,000 NOK (2008)" }, { "year": 2010, "eur2026": 329062.5, "boat": "Freidig", "type": "sale", "orig": "1,950,000 NOK (2010)" }, { "year": 2011, "eur2026": 301824.0, "boat": "Lotta", "type": "sale", "orig": "1,800,000 NOK (2011)" }, { "year": 2019, "eur2026": 221750.55, "boat": "Lotta", "type": "sale", "orig": "1,845,000 NOK (2019)" }, { "year": 2023, "eur2026": 381100.0, "boat": "Bedouin", "type": "sale", "orig": "370,000 EUR (2023)" } ], "no_bridge": [ { "boat_key": "named:ELEA_III", "reason": "Ask EUR 220-240k observed but condition record is a spec sheet only (140hp engine of unknown year, 2 heads). An 11-unknown bridge adds no information beyond the 1994_UK exemplar; recorded as price-only.", "confidence": "D" }, { "boat_key": "named:Isla_de_Jamaica", "reason": "Condition fragments (ketch, 143CV) but no reliable price captured — listing price never observed despite listing being live since >= Nov 2020. No bridge without a price.", "confidence": "D" }, { "boat_key": "named:Big_Blue", "reason": "Charter boat, not for sale; 143hp/4,800-hr fingerprint held for identity, no transaction to bridge.", "confidence": "-" }, { "boat_key": "named:Yachting_Address_1988_89_Liguria_ketch", "reason": "SOLD at EUR 265,000 (aggregator, undated, I) — one number, zero condition data, unknown date makes even inflation adjustment unreliable.", "confidence": "D" }, { "boat_key": "named:1987_SMN_PortGrimaud", "reason": "Conflicting year/price captures (1985-ketch-EUR150k vs 1987-USD174k) still unresolved in the conflict ledger — bridging a boat whose identity is unstable would be false precision.", "confidence": "D" }, { "boat_key": "rest_of_fleet", "reason": "The remaining ~60 hulls are dark: no price, no condition, in several cases no name. They appear in the coverage ledger, not in the economics.", "confidence": "-" } ], "case_studies": [ { "boat_key": "hull:63", "display": "Hull 63 BEDOUIN — the completed bridge (sold)", "type": "capital_story", "story": [ { "year": 1988, "event": "Built (register construction year, V)" }, { "year": 1996, "event": "Repowered TAMD41PA 200hp (both De Valk listings, V)" }, { "year": "2010s", "event": "De Valk listing 803929: lying Italy, 3,580 hrs, sold at private price (V)" }, { "year": "pre-2023", "event": "German ownership as DRESSCODE BIKINI (AIS identity, I); last AIS Monfalcone 2023-03" }, { "year": "2021-22", "event": "Full refit in Italy, 'over EUR 330,000 invested' (De Valk 808555 broker text, V-capture/seller-stated)", "nominal": "EUR 330,000", "amount_2026_eur": 379500 }, { "year": 2023, "event": "NOTARISED SALE EUR 370,000 (Norwegian register bill of sale, V)", "nominal": "EUR 370,000", "amount_2026_eur": 381100 }, { "year": 2024, "event": "Voluntarily deregistered; current registration unknown (register, V)" } ], "lesson": "The only fully-observed refit-to-exit cycle in the fleet: EUR ~380k (2026 money) of refit alone bought an exit of EUR ~381k (2026 money). The pre-refit boat — a running, repowered, 3,900-hr HR 49 — was implicitly valued by this chain at approximately ZERO net of refit invoices (caveats: seller-stated refit figure; genset was broken at sale; purchase price of the base boat unobserved). This single verified cycle is why every bridge in this system treats refit capex as largely non-recoverable and why NEV is anchored at ~EUR 370k." }, { "boat_key": "hull:10", "display": "Hull 10 FREIDIG — 30 years of notarised prices", "type": "capital_story", "story": [ { "year": 1996, "event": "Bill of sale (as MYLADY, ex-GRIZZLY)", "nominal": "NOK 922,500", "amount_2026_eur": 193600, "label": "V" }, { "year": 2007, "event": "Bill of sale (Carpe Diem Singelreiser AS)", "nominal": "NOK 1,875,000", "amount_2026_eur": 332800, "label": "V" }, { "year": 2008, "event": "Bill of sale (Nolting)", "nominal": "NOK 1,845,000", "amount_2026_eur": 308100, "label": "V" }, { "year": 2010, "event": "Bill of sale (Aadland + Brekke)", "nominal": "NOK 1,950,000", "amount_2026_eur": 329100, "label": "V" }, { "year": 2019, "event": "Bill of sale — sole ownership consolidation", "nominal": "NOK 462,500", "amount_2026_eur": 55600, "label": "V", "note": "almost certainly a partial-share transfer, excluded from price series" } ], "lesson": "The cleanest real-price series in the fleet: a 12-year-old HR 49 traded at EUR ~194k (2026 money) in 1996; the same hull traded at EUR ~308-333k (2026 money) three times during 2007-2010. Today's live asks for comparable boats are EUR 135-250k. The class appreciated in real terms into 2007-10, then gave back 30-40% — todays's buyer is purchasing at a real-terms level last seen in the late 1990s." }, { "boat_key": "hull:41", "display": "Hull 41 LOTTA — the 2010s plateau", "type": "capital_story", "story": [ { "year": 2011, "event": "Bill of sale (as SELOR III, foreign acquisition)", "nominal": "NOK 1,800,000", "amount_2026_eur": 301800, "label": "V" }, { "year": 2019, "event": "Bill of sale (Vetaas, renamed LOTTA)", "nominal": "NOK 1,845,000", "amount_2026_eur": 221700, "label": "V" } ], "lesson": "Same nominal NOK price eight years apart = a 27% real-terms decline between 2011 and 2019, bridging the gap between the 2007-10 peak and today's level. Nominal price stability masked steady real repricing." }, { "boat_key": "hull:87", "display": "Hull 87 — the relisting treadmill", "type": "capital_story", "story": [ { "year": 1992, "event": "Delivered in Germany (brochure text, V)" }, { "year": 1996, "event": "To the Netherlands (brochure text, V)" }, { "year": "2000-2005", "event": "Total refit incl. new teak 2002, new sails 2005 (brochure text, V)" }, { "year": "2000s-2010s", "event": "Sold through De Valk at least three times (IDs 55150, 32031, 251137); engine-hours chain 1,427 -> 1,450 -> 2,600 (2015); prices all private", "label": "V" } ], "lesson": "Three brokerage cycles in roughly a decade with only ~1,200 hours added: a lightly-used, repeatedly-traded boat. Relisting frequency in this fleet is not a red flag about the boat so much as evidence that ownership tenure of a 49-ft ocean cruiser is often shorter than the refit cycle it requires — which is precisely how deferred capex accumulates between owners." } ] }