{ "meta": { "name": "HR 49 Ocean-Ready Standard (ORS-49) & remediation cost library", "currency": "EUR, 2026 constant", "authored": "2026-08-09", "principle": "Every cost range is anchored to observed HR 49 refit history where it exists, and to current Northern-European yard rates for a 15 m / 18 t GRP cruiser where it does not. No industry depreciation schedules are used anywhere. Where evidence is thin the range is wide and says so.", "target_operating_standard": { "code": "ORS-49", "definition": "Robust, immediate ocean-crossing capability: the boat could depart on a trade-wind circuit within one season without deferred-risk items. It is NOT a concours restoration: cosmetics, interior styling and optional comfort systems (watermaker, air-conditioning, davits) are excluded and noted separately where present.", "systems_in_scope": [ "ENG", "RIG", "SAILS", "DECK", "HULL", "ELEC", "NAV", "SYS", "GEN", "RUN", "SAFE" ], "explicitly_excluded": [ "Interior cosmetics / upholstery (Bedouin's 2021/22 refit shows these can absorb large sums without changing ocean-capability)", "Watermaker, air-conditioning, davits (comfort options; presence is noted as embedded extras, absence is not costed)", "Rig-plan conversion (ketch vs sloop treated as equivalent for capability; market preference handled in the NEV note)" ] } }, "items": { "ENG": { "name": "Main engine", "compliant": "Engine younger than ~20 years OR professionally repowered, under ~4,000 hrs since new/overhaul, with documented service", "due_low": 45000, "due_high": 65000, "service_low": 8000, "service_high": 15000, "anchors": [ "Observed repowers in the fleet: hull 63 TAMD41PA (1996), hull 85 TAMD31S (2003), hull 17 Yanmar 4JH110 (2016), Sofer boat VP 140hp (2008), hull 25 TMD40A new (1999), BEAR-suspect TMD41P (2013) — repowering this class is routine, roughly once per 20-25 years", "Current installed cost of ~110-150hp marine diesel with shaft work, mounts, exhaust, controls at NW-European yards: EUR 45-65k", "Service = injector/pump overhaul, heat exchanger, mounts, hoses on a running mid-hours engine (cf. W&S Lefkas 2024 injector work within a documented GBP 75k programme)" ] }, "RIG": { "name": "Standing rigging & furling", "compliant": "Standing rigging younger than ~12 years; hydraulic Stoway/furlers serviced", "due_low": 28000, "due_high": 42000, "service_low": 6000, "service_high": 10000, "anchors": [ "3-spreader Selden stoway rig with hydraulic in-mast + hydraulic genoa/cutter furlers (fleet standard per De Valk specs) is at the expensive end of 49-ft re-rigs", "W&S Lefkas standing rigging renewed 2022 inside a documented GBP ~75k multi-item programme", "2005-era De Valk refits (251580, 90749-adjacent) list 'new rigging' as a headline item" ] }, "SAILS": { "name": "Sail wardrobe", "compliant": "Main + genoa (+ staysail) younger than ~10 years and serviced", "due_low": 22000, "due_high": 38000, "service_low": 4000, "service_high": 8000, "anchors": [ "In-mast furling main + ~60 m2 genoa + staysail in cruising laminate/dacron for 49 ft at 2026 loft prices", "Observed renewals: W&S Lefkas main+genoa 2024; Bedouin genoa/main serviced 2022 (Zattoni 2012 cloth); Sint Annaland '4 new furling sails'; hull 87 'new sails 2005'" ] }, "DECK": { "name": "Teak deck", "compliant": "Teak replaced/glued within ~20 years and sound, or sound original with survey evidence", "due_low": 60000, "due_high": 100000, "service_low": 8000, "service_high": 15000, "anchors": [ "Observed replacements: hull 87 new teak 2002; hull 85/W&S-Lefkas-boat teak 2008 glued-not-screwed ('totally replaced')", "2026 glued-teak or Esthec-equivalent renewal on a 49-footer (~60-70 m2 with coamings): EUR 60-100k at European yards", "Service = re-caulk and localised repair on a sound but aging deck" ] }, "HULL": { "name": "Hull integrity / osmosis", "compliant": "Documented epoxy anti-osmosis treatment or dry moisture readings on survey", "due_low": 25000, "due_high": 40000, "service_low": 5000, "service_high": 8000, "anchors": [ "Observed treatments: Cres boat full peel + 6-month heated dry-out + West System epoxy 2017; W&S Lefkas anti-osmosis + Coppercoat (post-2020 programme); De Valk 251580 anti-osmosis in 2005 refit", "35 mm solid GRP hulls of this era are robust but 1980s laminates untreated for 40 years carry real osmosis risk; full peel+dry+epoxy on 15 m: EUR 25-40k" ] }, "ELEC": { "name": "Electrical system", "compliant": "Battery bank younger than ~6 years, modern charging (alternator/solar/inverter), sound wiring", "due_low": 18000, "due_high": 32000, "service_low": 4000, "service_high": 8000, "anchors": [ "Bedouin 2021/22: 4x Victron LiFePO4 800Ah/24V + full battery-housing/charging rebuild (within EUR 330k refit)", "W&S Lefkas: 4x 140Ah domestic 2022 + 500W solar 2024", "1980s original wiring renewal appears in every documented deep refit (2005 De Valk refits list 'new wiring')" ] }, "NAV": { "name": "Navigation & autopilot", "compliant": "Functioning integrated suite younger than ~10 years incl. autopilot, AIS transceiver, radar", "due_low": 22000, "due_high": 36000, "service_low": 4000, "service_high": 8000, "anchors": [ "Full B&G/Raymarine refresh (plotter, radar, AIS, autopilot with oversized drive, instruments) on 49 ft: EUR 22-36k installed", "Fleet evidence: hull 85 Xora carries a full modern Raymarine/True Heading suite; W&S Lefkas keeps an oversized spare autopilot drive" ] }, "SYS": { "name": "Tanks, plumbing, seacocks, steering", "compliant": "Tanks (1,400L water / 600-1,000L fuel) sound or renewed, seacocks/hoses in date, steering serviced", "due_low": 14000, "due_high": 28000, "service_low": 3000, "service_high": 6000, "anchors": [ "2005-era De Valk refits list 'new tanks' as standard deep-refit scope", "Bedouin 2021/22: new wheel-steering cables, Gori folding prop, shaft work", "W&S Lefkas: new Volvo shaft seal + cutlass bearing 2022" ] }, "GEN": { "name": "Generator", "compliant": "Running genset with recent service (fleet standard fit)", "due_low": 12000, "due_high": 24000, "service_low": 2000, "service_high": 5000, "anchors": [ "Bedouin's Lombardini LMG9000 was 'out of order' at its EUR 370k sale — even top-condition boats carry genset risk", "W&S Lefkas Mase IS3501 at only 220 hrs, serviced 2025", "Replacement 3.5-8 kW marine genset installed: EUR 12-24k" ] }, "RUN": { "name": "Running rigging & deck gear", "compliant": "Lines, blocks, winch service in date; electric winches functioning where fitted", "due_low": 8000, "due_high": 16000, "service_low": 2000, "service_high": 4000, "anchors": [ "Full line replacement + winch service on 49 ft; several fleet boats carry electric winches (House of Yachts boat, Xora) which raise the ceiling" ] }, "SAFE": { "name": "Ocean safety kit", "compliant": "In-date liferaft, EPIRB, jackstays, MOB gear, flares, fire systems", "due_low": 8000, "due_high": 14000, "service_low": 2000, "service_high": 4000, "anchors": [ "6-person offshore raft + EPIRB + rigging of jackstays etc. at 2026 prices; Cres boat and Sofer boat document recent 6-person rafts (2024)" ] }, "RECOM": { "name": "Recommissioning after lay-up", "compliant": "In commission and sailing", "due_low": 5000, "due_high": 12000, "service_low": 0, "service_high": 0, "anchors": [ "Applies only to boats laid up ashore for extended periods (Queen Anne ~3 years, BEAR on the hard): systems flush, antifoul, anodes, rig re-step checks, sea trials" ] } }, "aggregation_rules": { "OK": "low 0, high 0, central 0 — evidence shows compliant; note residual age where relevant", "SERVICE": "service_low..service_high; central = midpoint", "DUE": "due_low..due_high; central = midpoint", "UNKNOWN": "low 0, high due_high, central = 0.5 x due midpoint — no evidence either way on a 35-40 year old boat; the honest treatment is a wide range, not a guess", "SPLIT": "custom low/high per line (e.g. original engine that runs well: low = major service, high = replacement); central = 0.5 x (low+high)", "contingency": "Applied to central and high only (low assumes no surprises): 15% where condition evidence is rich, 20% moderate, 25% where the boat is substantially unsurveyed or long laid-up", "note": "LOW is a genuine best case (every unknown resolves favourably), HIGH a prudent worst case short of structural failure. CENTRAL is the planning number." }, "friction_library": { "SURVEY": { "name": "Pre-purchase survey, haul-out, sea trial", "low": 4000, "high": 6000 }, "LEGAL": { "name": "Registration, flag, title, escrow", "low": 2000, "high": 4000 }, "DELIVERY": { "name": "Delivery passage to owner's base (crew/fuel/insurance, intra-European)", "low": 4000, "high": 9000 }, "AUCTION_FEE": { "name": "Auction buyer's premium", "note": "12.5% ex VAT on hammer (Bright Auctions lot 22988 terms, V)" }, "VAT_RISK": { "name": "EU VAT exposure flag", "note": "Not added to central. Where a boat's VAT status is unpaid/unclear (flagged per boat), importing to EU use can add ~20% of value. Shown as a flag, not a number." } }, "inflation_fx": { "method": "Foreign-currency amounts convert to EUR at approximate transaction-date rates, then inflate to 2026 EUR on a rounded euro-area HICP path. Factors are rough public-series approximations; treat converted figures as +/-5%.", "eur_factor_to_2026": { "1996": 1.72, "1999": 1.62, "2004": 1.52, "2005": 1.49, "2007": 1.42, "2008": 1.38, "2010": 1.35, "2011": 1.31, "2013": 1.27, "2015": 1.26, "2016": 1.25, "2017": 1.23, "2018": 1.21, "2019": 1.19, "2020": 1.18, "2021": 1.15, "2022": 1.09, "2023": 1.03, "2024": 1.01, "2025": 1.005, "2026": 1.0 }, "fx_to_eur_at_date": { "NOK_1996": 0.122, "NOK_2007": 0.125, "NOK_2008": 0.121, "NOK_2010": 0.125, "NOK_2011": 0.128, "NOK_2019": 0.101, "SEK_2025": 0.0895, "USD_2017": 0.89, "USD_2020": 0.88, "USD_2024": 0.92, "USD_2025": 0.9, "USD_2026": 0.865, "GBP_2025": 1.17, "GBP_2026": 1.17 } }, "nev": { "name": "Normalised Enterprise Value of an ORS-49-condition HR 49", "central": 300000, "low": 250000, "high": 360000, "confidence": "LOW: one verified sale (at a HIGHER standard than ORS-49), unsold asks everywhere else", "derivation": [ { "comp": "Hull 63 Bedouin", "obs": "EUR 370,000 notarised sale 2023 immediately after a EUR 330k+ refit that went well BEYOND ORS-49 (full cosmetics, upholstery, repaint, hydraulics, lithium). Ceiling comp.", "in_2026_eur": 381100, "weight": "primary ceiling — an ORS-grade boat lacks Bedouin's cosmetic scope; deduct roughly EUR 60-90k of non-ORS scope to imply EUR ~290-320k for ORS-grade" }, { "comp": "Hull 5 Stella Maris", "obs": "EUR 299,000 ask (2025-26) with a documented but aging 2018 refit and an original 5,000-hr engine — UNSOLD for over a year", "in_2026_eur": 300500, "weight": "upper bound of the ask curve for near-ORS condition; failure to clear says market value sits below EUR 300k" }, { "comp": "Live market staleness", "obs": "None of the five live boats (asks EUR 50k auction to EUR 249k) has sold at its ask during the 2024-26 observation window; the W&S boat cut GBP 160k -> 149,950", "in_2026_eur": "n/a", "weight": "structural: the entire ask curve trades above clearing prices" }, { "comp": "Hull 10 Freidig", "obs": "Three notarised sales 2007-2010 at EUR 305-335k in 2026 money (condition then unrecorded, market stronger)", "in_2026_eur": "305,000-335,000", "weight": "historical corroboration that a good HR 49 has cleared at EUR ~300k+ real — in a stronger market" }, { "comp": "Hull 17 Pegasus", "obs": "USD 439,000 ask 2020 post-2016-refit -> USD 199,000 ask 2025-26", "in_2026_eur": "456,000 -> 179,000", "weight": "refit ask-premium decays to zero within a decade; supports treating capex as non-recoverable" }, { "comp": "BUC International book (2026)", "obs": "Captured user deal file: OneDrive/4_Research/49_Hallberg Rassy: 1985 ketch $249.5-274k; 1990 sloop $248-272.5k; implied 1985 sloop $214-235k (I). US retail book; BUC runs 10-25% ABOVE observed US asking (Pegasus asks $199k vs implied $214k floor).", "in_2026_eur": "≈ €185,000–203,000 (implied 1985 sloop, mid)", "weight": "independent non-broker anchor — but US, retail, and book-curve based; treated as soft-ceiling corroboration of the ask curve, not a market read" }, { "comp": "Deal-file works-linked exit ladder", "obs": "user deal file: OneDrive/4_Research/49_Hallberg Rassy 12/17: exit bands GBP 142k/175k/197k for low/base/high works on the Carpe Diem boat, ask-anchored (built before this register's notarised sales existed)", "in_2026_eur": "≈ €166,000–230,000", "weight": "second independent model; converges with BUC condition rungs; implies partially-sorted boats clear BELOW this band's floor" } ], "notes": [ "The fleet has repriced DOWN in real terms: 2007-2010 verified sales at EUR 305-335k (2026 money) vs 2025-26 asks of EUR 135-250k for mid-condition boats — and even those asks are not clearing.", "NEV is deliberately the value of an ORS-49 boat, not a Bedouin-grade showpiece: capability without cosmetics. Presenting a boat at Bedouin grade costs a further EUR ~60-90k and, on the single verified datapoint, returns roughly that amount at sale — no arbitrage either way.", "NEV applies to the standard hull. Hull 1 (unique 16 m twin-cockpit) and the 5 Caribia-edition boats have no comp set; variant premium/discount unquantified.", "Refit capex does not transfer 1:1 into value. The market pays for CONDITION, evidenced; it pays nothing for invoices.", "TENSION RECORDED, not averaged: two independent ask-anchored models (BUC book, deal-file exit ladder) place partially-sorted exits at EUR 165-230k — below this band's floor. The band holds for FULL ORS-49 condition with documentation (Bedouin's EUR 381k real sale is the proof it can clear); treat the band's low half as where sorted-but-undocumented boats actually trade.", "Rig plan: BUC's +16.5% ketch book premium is a list-price artifact; the observed market pays no ketch premium (a 1986 owner paid to CONVERT ketch->sloop in 2008). BUC has NO 1985 sloop record at all — consistent with the yard's 'in the beginning she was only built as a ketch' and a ketch-dominant 1982-87 production era.", "ASSET FLOOR (imported, deal file 22): component-level liquidation of an HR 49 is NEGATIVE (orderly -EUR 3,899; separation costs ~EUR 23k eat the ~EUR 19k recoveries). Whole-beats-parts by ~EUR 32k; derived whole-boat floor EUR 28-43k. 100%+ of the asset's value is going-concern value." ] } }