The Economics

W&S Lefkas boat (1987) grade A

The best-evidenced live boat: nine of eleven systems verified, cleanest VAT/title file, and a reconstructed price history (EUR 260k ask 2017 -> GBP 150k today) showing the vendor has already absorbed the market's real-terms repricing. Everything reduces to a single decision: trust the original engine or budget EUR 45-65k to repower. Even with a full repower, Day-1 lands below NEV central — after two years on the market and a price cut, this is the only boat on the board with a clearly positive central-case gap. The market is paying the seller nothing for nine verified systems.

Entry 149,950 GBP = €175 442 (2026 €) · Friction €14 500 · Bridge €18k / €66k / €114k (contingency 15%) · Day-1 €255 492 · Gap vs NEV €44 508 (best €157k / worst €-58k)

Live Williams & Smithells listing, GBP 149,950 incl VAT, tax paid, full Italian flag-closure papers 2020 — cleanest paperwork in the fleet. On market since ~2024 at GBP 160k -> 149,950; archived 2017 ask EUR 260k in Tuscany [probable same boat].

CARPE DIEM — Cres auction (1985) grade B

Now identified: CARPE DIEM, an American-specification boat (120V, Westerbeke, Village Marine; US official number hypothesised) lying under auction at Cres. The deal file's forensics harden the bridge: sails are verifiably due, the 120V system adds European conversion cost, the 2017 hull job still retires the worst tail, and seven volumes of ship's records sit aboard — the provenance asset of the fleet if captured. The economics remain an option, but the strike is the HAMMER, not the start bid: at the deal file's modelled median hammer (EUR 119-134k at historical bid intensity) the central gap goes decisively negative. Below EUR ~80k it stays a surveyor's trade with the largest right tail on the board — and the component-level floor is NEGATIVE (whole beats parts by ~EUR 32k), so a structural miss costs more than everything. The deal file's independent embedded-value scenarios (+GBP 58k / +11k / -146k) bracket this register's bridge almost exactly — two models, one conclusion.

Entry 57,785 USD = €49 984 (2026 €) · Friction €20 750 · Bridge €77k / €257k / €481k (contingency 25%) · Day-1 €327 609 · Gap vs NEV €-27 609 (best €217k / worst €-306k)

Live listing = EUR 50,000 auction start. DEAL-FILE CORRECTION: the 50k is a MECHANICAL ~0.2 x restatement of the EUR 250,000 ask (platform median 0.204, n=181) — not distress evidence in itself [V]. Hammer formation (deal-file model, 46 lots): boats median 32 bids; at the historical 26-40 bid band median hammer EUR 119-134k; P(hammer <= EUR 80k) only 3-34%. Every euro of hammer above 50k moves Day-1 and the gap 1:1 — the numbers below are the START-BID case, i.e. near the boat's best case, not its expected case.

Hull 1 AMFITRITE (1983, 16 m variant) grade C

Historically the most interesting hull (No. 1, one-off 16 m layout) and analytically the least comparable. The missing teak deck deletes the single biggest tail cost, which quietly makes her bridge distribution better than the ask suggests — but every other system is undocumented and the exit market for a modified first-hull is a guess. An asset for a collector-operator, not a portfolio allocator.

Entry 1,950,000 SEK = €175 398 (2026 €) · Friction €14 500 · Bridge €8k / €148k / €356k (contingency 25%) · Day-1 €337 710 · Gap vs NEV €-37 710 (best €167k / worst €-301k)

Berthon Scandinavia ask SEK 1,950,000 (~EUR 175k). Unique first hull: extended 52'6" twin-cockpit transom, no teak deck, Yanmar 120hp repower (year unstated). NEV comparability is weak — no comp set exists for this variant.

Hull 17 PEGASUS (1984) grade B

The embedded-value candidate. A 418-hour 2016 Yanmar removes the fleet's biggest single cost, the institutional owner removes seller-storytelling risk, and the ask has already deflated 55% from 2020. The catch is geography: EUR 12-25k transatlantic friction and a US-spec boat for a European buyer. For a US-based buyer (strip the EUR 12-25k transatlantic friction) central Day-1 sits essentially at NEV — the fairest-priced boat observed. For a European buyer the Atlantic eats the entire margin and then some: geography, not condition, decides this one.

Entry 199,000 USD = €179 995 (2026 €) · Friction €26 500 · Bridge €25k / €140k / €290k (contingency 20%) · Day-1 €346 596 · Gap vs NEV €-46 596 (best €137k / worst €-255k)

David Walters/Denison ask USD 199,000 (down from USD 439,000 in 2020 — the ask has given back the entire 2016-refit premium in nine years). Maine Maritime Academy institutional seller; lease-to-buy offered.

Sofer Preveza boat (1986) grade B

A loved, 12-years-one-family boat (3rd ownership) with the two structural fears (osmosis, engine) retired — but priced as if the 2008 systems were new. Rig is 18 years old, the wardrobe likely too, electrics undocumented, and the VAT flag can add ~20% for an EU user. At ~EUR 198k entry the central bridge pushes Day-1 roughly EUR 60k through NEV central before the VAT flag is even priced. The ask embeds the seller's affection and the 2008 refit's memory, not its 2026 remainder.

Entry 228,829 USD = €197 937 (2026 €) · Friction €14 500 · Bridge €46k / €147k / €281k (contingency 20%) · Day-1 €359 437 · Gap vs NEV €-59 437 (best €106k / worst €-248k)

Live YachtWorld ask (= ~EUR 198k; Sofer/Denison list EUR 199,000 excl tax). VAT FLAG: inherited capture states 'EU VAT not paid' — EU-use import exposure ~20% is flagged, not added.

⚠ EU VAT exposure flagged, not priced in.

BEAR (1987) — stale/delisted grade C

A data-integrity object lesson: after stripping a copy-pasted history (see conflict ledger), the record holds one decent engine datapoint and a stale price on a delisted boat. The 200hp repowered engine at 2,840 hrs would be a genuine asset if the boat resurfaces; until then this bridge exists mainly to show what the register does NOT know.

Entry 149,950 GBP = €177 196 (2026 €) · Friction €14 500 · Bridge €13k / €208k / €496k (contingency 25%) · Day-1 €400 133 · Gap vs NEV €-100 133 (best €160k / worst €-442k)

Last known ask GBP 149,950; listing DELISTED by 2026-08-09 and never archived — price is stale and the boat may have sold or been withdrawn. On the hard at Port Napoleon.

1994 UK boat — youngest known hull grade D

Included to show the honest shape of a price-only record: an 11-item bridge of pure unknowns spans roughly EUR 0-420k prudent-high. The 1994 build year is the one real signal — youngest known hull, lowest osmosis prior, plausibly original-but-younger everything. A survey would move this boat more than any other on the board.

Entry 149,000 GBP = €174 330 (2026 €) · Friction €14 500 · Bridge €0k / €218k / €544k (contingency 25%) · Day-1 €406 642 · Gap vs NEV €-106 642 (best €176k / worst €-487k)

Apollo Duck aggregator ask GBP 149,000 tax paid; capture undated, listing status unverified. Price treated as indicative only.

Hull 5 STELLA MARIS (1983/84) grade A

The fleet's best-documented boat and its cautionary tale on capex recovery: EUR 230k (2026 money) invested in 2018, asking EUR 300k seven years later, unsold — the ask effectively prices the refit at ~EUR 70-130k of recovered value over a EUR 170-230k base boat. For a buyer, Day-1 central lands EUR ~140k above NEV: the ask prices the 2018 refit close to fully while the market (which has not met it in over a year) does not. Best documentation in the fleet, worst central-case economics after Altor and Queen Anne. The 5,000-hr original engine is the question the ask ignores.

Entry 299,000 EUR = €300 495 (2026 €) · Friction €14 500 · Bridge €26k / €128k / €256k (contingency 15%) · Day-1 €443 220 · Gap vs NEV €-143 220 (best €24k / worst €-326k)

Regina Sailing / De Valk 809256 ask EUR 299,000 (long-standing; earlier wayback shows her lying Malaysia at 5,000 hrs). Not sold at this level.

Altor (1990) grade C

The most expensive live boat and the least evidenced: one verified fact (5,210-hr original engine) and ten unknowns. A younger hull (1990) justifies some premium, but at EUR 249k the ask already sits at ~67% of NEV before a single bridge item — and the honest bridge range is EUR 30-300k wide. Worst risk-adjusted entry on the board until a survey collapses the unknowns.

Entry 249,000 EUR = €249 000 (2026 €) · Friction €14 500 · Bridge €8k / €229k / €544k (contingency 25%) · Day-1 €492 562 · Gap vs NEV €-192 562 (best €93k / worst €-562k)

De Valk 809602 live ask EUR 249,000 (reduced from 275,000); = USD 287,769 on YachtWorld. Highest live ask in the fleet.

Queen Anne (1985) grade B

The classic broker-storytelling gap: 'well-priced ketch' vs the arithmetic of three years' neglect. The honest central bridge (~EUR 340k with recommissioning and contingency) on a EUR 140k boat lands Day-1 near EUR 500k against a EUR 300k NEV — the widest central-case value destruction on the board. Only a deep further price cut or a surveyor's miracle changes this picture. The US-market origin thread (unverified) adds title-history diligence.

Entry 139,500 EUR = €139 500 (2026 €) · Friction €14 500 · Bridge €137k / €344k / €559k (contingency 25%) · Day-1 €498 062 · Gap vs NEV €-198 062 (best €74k / worst €-467k)

Denison capture: off market at EUR 139,500 after failing to sell from USD 146,475 (Dec 2024). Ashore ~3 years; broker text itself concedes 'inadequate maintenance... owner's health issues'. A motivated-seller situation without a live ask.

Hull 63 BEDOUIN — the completed bridge (sold)

Lesson. The only fully-observed refit-to-exit cycle in the fleet: EUR ~380k (2026 money) of refit alone bought an exit of EUR ~381k (2026 money). The pre-refit boat — a running, repowered, 3,900-hr HR 49 — was implicitly valued by this chain at approximately ZERO net of refit invoices (caveats: seller-stated refit figure; genset was broken at sale; purchase price of the base boat unobserved). This single verified cycle is why every bridge in this system treats refit capex as largely non-recoverable and why NEV is anchored at ~EUR 370k.

Hull 10 FREIDIG — 30 years of notarised prices

Lesson. The cleanest real-price series in the fleet: a 12-year-old HR 49 traded at EUR ~194k (2026 money) in 1996; the same hull traded at EUR ~308-333k (2026 money) three times during 2007-2010. Today's live asks for comparable boats are EUR 135-250k. The class appreciated in real terms into 2007-10, then gave back 30-40% — todays's buyer is purchasing at a real-terms level last seen in the late 1990s.

Hull 41 LOTTA — the 2010s plateau

Lesson. Same nominal NOK price eight years apart = a 27% real-terms decline between 2011 and 2019, bridging the gap between the 2007-10 peak and today's level. Nominal price stability masked steady real repricing.

Hull 87 — the relisting treadmill

Lesson. Three brokerage cycles in roughly a decade with only ~1,200 hours added: a lightly-used, repeatedly-traded boat. Relisting frequency in this fleet is not a red flag about the boat so much as evidence that ownership tenure of a 49-ft ocean cruiser is often shorter than the refit cycle it requires — which is precisely how deferred capex accumulates between owners.